Tipping the Balance? Implications of the Iran Nuclear Deal on Israeli Security

Standing before the United States Congress early in March 2015, in the face of a looming deadline in the Iran and P5+1 talks over the Iranian nuclear program, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu portrayed the negotiations in stark terms. Drawing a direct parallel between biblical plots to persecute Jews in pre-Islamic Persia and modern Iran’s nuclear program, Netanyahu framed Iran as nothing less than an existential threat to Israel. Anything short of a practical dismantling of Iranian nuclear infrastructure would be unacceptable. Largely perceived as an attempt to undermine President Barack Obama’s efforts to reach a negotiated settlement with Iran, Netanyahu’s actions thus proved quite contentious inside the United States.

The Prime Minister’s speech, however, proved just as divisive inside Israel as in America. For some Israelis, Netanyahu’s aggressive denunciations of President Obama’s negotiation policies threatened to weaken the alliance and trust between the two countries. As the Israeli President, Reuven Rivlin, stated: “The prime minister has waged a campaign against the United States as if the two sides were equal, and this is liable to hurt Israel.”  Nearly 200 top retired Israeli security officials echoed Rivlin’s statements in a warning against Netanyahu’s campaign. Others, however, welcomed Netanyahu’s approach as they believed that Israel needed to demonstrate more strength in order to minimize concessions granted to Iran and ensure a more complete dismantling of an indigenous Iranian nuclear program.

These clashing perspectives inside Israel in part reflect broader debates over not only the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) but also regarding larger Israeli strategy for dealing with Iran’s regional influence and power. This publication sheds light on these debates as well as the nature of Israeli security and foreign policy thinking in light of the recent agreement. Given the significant implications that the nuclear deal will have on Israel and its regional security environment, it is critical to directly assess these rapidly changing dynamics, particularly by engaging with the viewpoints of scholars and analysts inside Israel.